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Midlands Wand. vs Upington City Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 13:00

Midlands Wand.

PPG 1.42 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Upington City

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-110.3%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 42.6% 2.35 +4.3%

Draw 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -19.9%

Away win 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

Over 2.5 37.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.9% — — —

BTTS 43.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midlands Wand.1.3

Upington City0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLANDS WAND. · PPG 1.42

UPINGTON CITY · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.42) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Midlands Wand. (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +4.3%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.9%

Upington City (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midlands Wand. face Upington City in South-Africa - 1st Division on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midlands Wand. a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Upington City 27%, so Midlands Wand. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Midlands Wand. and 0.9 for Upington City (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midlands Wand. are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.83 for Upington City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Midlands Wand. vs Upington City Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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