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Colón vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:30

Colón logo
Colón
PPG 1.40 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
La Luz logo
La Luz
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-111.0%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.2%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 44.5%
Draw 32.2%
Away win 23.2%
Over 2.5 35.4%
Over 3.5 17.7%
BTTS 44.6%
Home O1.5 30.2%
Away O1.5 17.2%

League track record

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 50%
BTTS 50%
Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%
#2 1–0 18.3%
#3 1–1 12.6%
#4 2–0 10.5%
#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colón1.1
La Luz0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLÓN · PPG 1.40

LA LUZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...
45%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colón (H) 44.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 32.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
La Luz (A) 23.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colón face La Luz in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colón a 45% chance, the draw 32% and La Luz 23%, so Colón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Colón and 0.7 for La Luz (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colón are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for La Luz.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org