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Colón vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División
2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:30
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%
Form & verdict
COLÓN · PPG 1.40
LA LUZ · PPG 1.00
xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Colón face La Luz in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colón a 45% chance, the draw 32% and La Luz 23%, so Colón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Colón and 0.7 for La Luz (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colón are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for La Luz.