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Uruguay Montevideo vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Uruguay Montevideo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atenas

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.1%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.7%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 40.0% 2.50 +12.3%

Draw 26.9% 33.9% 2.95 -12.4%

Away win 28.2% 36.4% 2.75 -13.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

Away O1.5 34.0% 35.7% 2.80 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uruguay Montevideo1.4

Atenas1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.50

ATENAS · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uruguay Montevideo (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.4%

Atenas (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uruguay Montevideo face Atenas in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uruguay Montevideo a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Atenas 28%, so Uruguay Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Uruguay Montevideo and 1.1 for Atenas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uruguay Montevideo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Atenas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Uruguay Montevideo vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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