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Oriental vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Oriental

PPG 1.90 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Atenas

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.0%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.8%1-111.6%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.3%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 40.8% 2.45 +24.2%

Draw 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Away win 24.4% 38.5% 2.60 -21.9%

Over 2.5 51.3% 48.8% 2.05 +5.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 26.7% 3.75 +6.8%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 48.2% 40.8% 2.45 +18.1%

Away O1.5 29.3% 38.5% 2.60 -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oriental1.7

Atenas1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIENTAL · PPG 1.90

ATENAS · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oriental (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +24.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Atenas (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oriental face Atenas in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oriental a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Atenas 24%, so Oriental are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oriental and 1.0 for Atenas (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oriental are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.89 for Atenas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Oriental vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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