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Miramar vs Tacuarembo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Miramar

PPG 0.89 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Tacuarembo

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-110.6%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.4%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-17.6%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 39.2% 2.55 +23.4%

Draw 28.4% 34.5% 2.90 -10.6%

Away win 23.2% 36.4% 2.75 -21.7%

Over 2.5 36.7% 39.2% 2.55 -6.4%

Over 3.5 21.1% 20.8% 4.80 +0.8%

BTTS 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Home O1.5 33.5% 33.9% 2.95 -1.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 32.3% 3.10 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 1–1✓ 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miramar1.2

Tacuarembo0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRAMAR · PPG 0.89

TACUAREMBO · PPG 0.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miramar (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +23.4%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.6%

Tacuarembo (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miramar face Tacuarembo in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miramar a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Tacuarembo 23%, so Miramar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Miramar and 0.7 for Tacuarembo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miramar are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.50 for Tacuarembo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Miramar vs Tacuarembo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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