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Rentistas vs Tacuarembo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Rentistas

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tacuarembo

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-18.7%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.3%1-112.0%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.6% 2.35 +0.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

BTTS 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 17.2% 27.0% 3.70 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rentistas1.4

Tacuarembo0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RENTISTAS · PPG 1.00

TACUAREMBO · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rentistas (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Tacuarembo (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rentistas face Tacuarembo in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rentistas a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Tacuarembo 22%, so Rentistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rentistas and 0.7 for Tacuarembo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rentistas are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.56 for Tacuarembo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.3%.

Rentistas vs Tacuarembo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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