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Rentistas vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:00

Rentistas

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-115.9%0-27.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.0%2-15.6%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Draw 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

Away win 34.4% 44.4% 2.25 -22.6%

Over 2.5 36.5% 40.0% 2.50 -8.8%

Over 3.5 17.7% 22.2% 4.50 -12.2%

BTTS 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.4% 3.40 +2.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 38.5% 2.60 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rentistas0.8

Plaza Colonia0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RENTISTAS · PPG 1.00

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rentistas (H) 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.3%

Plaza Colonia (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rentistas face Plaza Colonia in Uruguay - Segunda División on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rentistas a 33% chance, the draw 33% and Plaza Colonia 34%, so Plaza Colonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Rentistas and 0.9 for Plaza Colonia (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rentistas are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.56 for Plaza Colonia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Rentistas vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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