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CA River Plate vs Miramar Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

CA River Plate

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Miramar

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.0%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.5%1-110.8%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.2%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA River Plate1.8

Miramar1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CA RIVER PLATE · PPG 1.89

MIRAMAR · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CA River Plate (H) 52.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Miramar (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CA River Plate face Miramar in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA River Plate a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Miramar 24%, so CA River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CA River Plate and 1.1 for Miramar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA River Plate are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.11 for Miramar.

CA River Plate vs Miramar Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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