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CA River Plate vs Sportivo Huracan Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

CA River Plate

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sportivo Huracan

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.2%1-111.1%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 25.8% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0✓ 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA River Plate1.7

Sportivo Huracan1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CA RIVER PLATE · PPG 1.75

SPORTIVO HURACAN · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CA River Plate (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportivo Huracan (A) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CA River Plate face Sportivo Huracan in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA River Plate a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Sportivo Huracan 26%, so CA River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for CA River Plate and 1.2 for Sportivo Huracan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA River Plate are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.11 for Sportivo Huracan. This match finished 2-0.

CA River Plate vs Sportivo Huracan Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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