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Cerrito vs Oriental Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Cerrito

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oriental

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.8%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.5%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 39.2% 2.55 +24.9%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 23.9% 39.2% 2.55 -23.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 29.0% 3.45 -1.8%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 40.8% 2.45 +10.5%

Away O1.5 21.3% 40.8% 2.45 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerrito1.4

Oriental0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRITO · PPG 2.50

ORIENTAL · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerrito (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +24.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Oriental (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerrito face Oriental in Uruguay - Segunda División on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerrito a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Oriental 24%, so Cerrito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cerrito and 0.9 for Oriental (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerrito are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Oriental. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.5%.

Cerrito vs Oriental Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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