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Fenix vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Fenix

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-110.6%0-24.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.1%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.1%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 43.5% 2.30 +1.4%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Over 3.5 28.1% 22.2% 4.50 +15.9%

BTTS 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Home O1.5 33.9% 38.5% 2.60 -11.9%

Away O1.5 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.3%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenix1.2

Plaza Colonia0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FENIX · PPG 2.00

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fenix (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Plaza Colonia (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenix face Plaza Colonia in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenix a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Plaza Colonia 29%, so Fenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fenix and 0.9 for Plaza Colonia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenix are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Plaza Colonia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Fenix vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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