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Alianza FC vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:15

Alianza FC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Plaza Amador

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.3%0-26.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.7%1-111.6%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.7%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 38.0% — — —

Over 2.5 54.0% — — —

Over 3.5 31.9% — — —

BTTS 56.6% — — —

Home O1.5 41.5% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.6%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza FC1.4

Plaza Amador1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA FC · PPG 1.73

PLAZA AMADOR · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alianza FC (H) 36.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Plaza Amador (A) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza FC face Plaza Amador in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza FC a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Plaza Amador 38%, so Plaza Amador are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alianza FC and 1.5 for Plaza Amador (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza FC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 2.00 for Plaza Amador.

Alianza FC vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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