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San Francisco FC vs Independiente de La Chorrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 01:30

San Francisco FC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente de La Chorrera

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.9%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.5%1-112.3%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.5%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 39.0% — — —

Away O1.5 38.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Francisco FC1.4

Independiente de La Chorrera1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN FRANCISCO FC · PPG 1.56

INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Francisco FC (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Independiente de La Chorrera (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Francisco FC face Independiente de La Chorrera in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Francisco FC a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente de La Chorrera 30%, so San Francisco FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Francisco FC and 1.3 for Independiente de La Chorrera (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Francisco FC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.10 for Independiente de La Chorrera.

San Francisco FC vs Independiente de La Chorrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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