Today / Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol / Herrera vs Veraguas

Herrera vs Veraguas Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:00

Herrera

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Veraguas

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.6%0-29.7%0-35.9%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.9%1-110.8%1-29.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.0%2-15.5%2-25.0%2-33.1%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.0%3-11.9%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 51.0% 50.5% 1.98 +1.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 51.3% 1.95 +4.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 29.4% 3.40 +8.1%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away O1.5 51.7% 48.8% 2.05 +6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.5%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrera1.0

Veraguas1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRERA · PPG 0.89

VERAGUAS · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Herrera (H) 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Veraguas (A) 51.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrera face Veraguas in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrera a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Veraguas 51%, so Veraguas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Herrera and 1.8 for Veraguas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrera are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.70 for Veraguas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.1%.

Herrera vs Veraguas Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

More Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol Predictions