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Union Cocle vs Veraguas Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

Union Cocle

PPG 1.70 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Veraguas

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.6%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-13.8%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 29.0% 3.45 +68.7%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 23.9% 49.0% 2.04 -30.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Over 3.5 25.8% 23.8% 4.20 +5.0%

BTTS 49.6% 52.4% 1.91 -5.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 29.0% 3.45 +29.0%

Away O1.5 20.4% 43.5% 2.30 -31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Cocle1.3

Veraguas0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION COCLE · PPG 1.70

VERAGUAS · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union Cocle (H) 48.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +68.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Veraguas (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Cocle face Veraguas in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Cocle a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Veraguas 24%, so Union Cocle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Union Cocle and 0.8 for Veraguas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Cocle are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.56 for Veraguas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Union Cocle vs Veraguas Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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