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San Francisco FC vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 01:30

San Francisco FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Herrera

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+30.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.7%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.8%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-18.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.1% 53.5% 1.87 +16.1%

Draw 19.9% 30.3% 3.30 -20.6%

Away win 18.0% 25.3% 3.95 -17.3%

Over 2.5 63.8% 48.8% 2.05 +30.8%

Over 3.5 42.5% 27.0% 3.70 +57.3%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 62.6% 48.8% 2.05 +28.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 62% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 3–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Francisco FC2.5

Herrera0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN FRANCISCO FC · PPG 1.38

HERRERA · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.38 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

San Francisco FC (H) 62.1%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV +16.1%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.6%

Herrera (A) 18.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Francisco FC face Herrera in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Francisco FC a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Herrera 18%, so San Francisco FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for San Francisco FC and 0.9 for Herrera (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Francisco FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.44 for Herrera. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +57.3%. This match finished 3-1.

San Francisco FC vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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