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Sporting San Miguelito vs Alianza FC Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 23:15

Sporting San Miguelito

PPG 0.89 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alianza FC

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.6%0-27.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.2%1-113.0%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.7%2-17.3%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 38.4% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting San Miguelito1.1

Alianza FC1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO · PPG 0.89

ALIANZA FC · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting San Miguelito (H) 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza FC (A) 38.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting San Miguelito face Alianza FC in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting San Miguelito a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza FC 38%, so Alianza FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sporting San Miguelito and 1.3 for Alianza FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting San Miguelito are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.36 for Alianza FC. This match finished 0-0.

Sporting San Miguelito vs Alianza FC Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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