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UMECIT vs Sporting San Miguelito Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:30

UMECIT

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting San Miguelito

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.1%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.6%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 43.1% 2.32 +21.6%

Draw 24.6% 33.9% 2.95 -16.5%

Away win 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 40.8% 2.45 +22.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 37.7% 2.65 +19.5%

Away O1.5 22.0% 29.9% 3.35 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UMECIT1.5

Sporting San Miguelito0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UMECIT · PPG 2.00

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UMECIT (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +21.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -16.5%

Sporting San Miguelito (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UMECIT face Sporting San Miguelito in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UMECIT a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting San Miguelito 23%, so UMECIT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for UMECIT and 0.9 for Sporting San Miguelito (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UMECIT are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Sporting San Miguelito. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.3%.

UMECIT vs Sporting San Miguelito Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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