Today / Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol / UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido

UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:30

UMECIT

PPG 2.11 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

CD Arabe Unido

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+25.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.6%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.4%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.1%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 45.0% 2.22 +25.4%

Draw 22.3% 32.8% 3.05 -19.2%

Away win 21.1% 31.3% 3.20 -19.5%

Over 2.5 55.1% 39.2% 2.55 +40.5%

Over 3.5 34.6% 20.0% 5.00 +73.0%

BTTS 54.1% 47.6% 2.10 +13.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 37.7% 2.65 +46.8%

Away O1.5 20.4% 27.8% 3.60 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UMECIT1.9

CD Arabe Unido0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UMECIT · PPG 2.11

CD ARABE UNIDO · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UMECIT (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +25.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -19.2%

CD Arabe Unido (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

UMECIT face CD Arabe Unido in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UMECIT a 56% chance, the draw 22% and CD Arabe Unido 21%, so UMECIT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for UMECIT and 0.8 for CD Arabe Unido (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UMECIT are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.88 for CD Arabe Unido. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +73.0%. This match finished 0-0.

UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

More Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol Predictions