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Independiente de La Chorrera vs Deportivo Universitario Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 01:00

Independiente de La Chorrera

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportivo Universitario

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.8%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.9%1-111.2%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-15.1%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 47.7% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 66.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente de La Chorrera1.7

Deportivo Universitario0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA · PPG 1.33

DEPORTIVO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente de La Chorrera (H) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Universitario (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente de La Chorrera face Deportivo Universitario in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente de La Chorrera a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Universitario 22%, so Independiente de La Chorrera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Independiente de La Chorrera and 0.8 for Deportivo Universitario (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente de La Chorrera are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.56 for Deportivo Universitario. This match finished 2-2.

Independiente de La Chorrera vs Deportivo Universitario Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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