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Belgrano Cordoba vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:00

Belgrano Cordoba

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.3%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.8%2-18.3%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Draw 28.0% 30.3% 3.30 -4.6%

Away win 26.6% 27.8% 3.60 -2.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 37.7% 2.65 +21.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 19.0% 5.25 +21.9%

BTTS 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Away O1.5 26.2% 23.1% 4.33 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Cordoba1.3

Independ. Rivadavia0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO CORDOBA · PPG 1.82

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 1.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Cordoba (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.9%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.6%

Independ. Rivadavia (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Cordoba face Independ. Rivadavia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Cordoba a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Independ. Rivadavia 27%, so Belgrano Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.9 for Independ. Rivadavia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Cordoba are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.78 for Independ. Rivadavia. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +25.4%.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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