Today / Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina / Newells Old Boys vs Deportivo Riestra

Newells Old Boys vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:00

Newells Old Boys

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Riestra

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-113.2%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-16.0%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.8%3-11.9%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 44.6% 2.24 -1.2%

Draw 32.5% 35.0% 2.86 -7.0%

Away win 23.4% 27.4% 3.65 -8.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 33.9% 2.95 +0.9%

Over 3.5 17.7% 16.0% 6.25 +6.4%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 34.7% 2.88 -13.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newells Old Boys1.0

Deportivo Riestra0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 1.10

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA · PPG 0.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 1.62 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Newells Old Boys (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -1.2%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -7.0%

Deportivo Riestra (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newells Old Boys face Deportivo Riestra in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newells Old Boys a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Deportivo Riestra 23%, so Newells Old Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Newells Old Boys and 0.7 for Deportivo Riestra (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newells Old Boys are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.33 for Deportivo Riestra. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Newells Old Boys vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions