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Union Omaha vs Richmond Kickers Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:00

Union Omaha

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Richmond Kickers

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.56 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-11.9%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.0%1-15.5%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-17.4%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.3%4+-110.5%4+-23.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.3% — — —

Draw 16.0% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 64.7% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 74.9% — — —

Away O1.5 16.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.2%

H 76% / xG 2.8-0.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 3–0 12.2%

#3 4–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Omaha2.8

Richmond Kickers0.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION OMAHA · PPG 2.56

RICHMOND KICKERS · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.56 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Union Omaha (H) 76.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Richmond Kickers (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Omaha face Richmond Kickers in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Omaha a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Richmond Kickers 8%, so Union Omaha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Union Omaha and 0.6 for Richmond Kickers (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Omaha are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.40 for Richmond Kickers.

Union Omaha vs Richmond Kickers Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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