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NY Cosmos vs Alta Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

NY Cosmos

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alta

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.5%0-26.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.3%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.0%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.5%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NY Cosmos1.3

Alta1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NY COSMOS · PPG 1.22

ALTA · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NY Cosmos (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alta (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

NY Cosmos face Alta in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NY Cosmos a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Alta 36%, so NY Cosmos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NY Cosmos and 1.4 for Alta (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NY Cosmos are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.10 for Alta.

NY Cosmos vs Alta Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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