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Spokane Velocity vs Corpus Christi Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:00

Spokane Velocity

PPG 2.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Corpus Christi

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-15.7%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-110.3%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.7%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 59.9% 1.67 -1.1%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 16.9% 22.2% 4.50 -14.4%

Over 2.5 51.1% 54.1% 1.85 -5.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

BTTS 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Home O1.5 50.0% 57.1% 1.75 -12.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 28.6% 3.50 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spokane Velocity1.8

Corpus Christi0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOKANE VELOCITY · PPG 2.45

CORPUS CHRISTI · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spokane Velocity (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -1.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Corpus Christi (A) 16.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spokane Velocity face Corpus Christi in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spokane Velocity a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Corpus Christi 17%, so Spokane Velocity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Spokane Velocity and 0.7 for Corpus Christi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spokane Velocity are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 0.73 for Corpus Christi.

Spokane Velocity vs Corpus Christi Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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