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Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:30

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Forward Madison

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.4%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.3%1-111.5%1-27.9%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 31.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 35.5% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Hearts of Pine1.5

Forward Madison1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 1.33

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portland Hearts of Pine (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Forward Madison (A) 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Hearts of Pine face Forward Madison in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Hearts of Pine a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Forward Madison 31%, so Portland Hearts of Pine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.4 for Forward Madison (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Hearts of Pine are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.30 for Forward Madison.

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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