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Fort Wayne vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Fort Wayne

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.3%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.3%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.4%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 27.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fort Wayne1.9

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FORT WAYNE · PPG 1.88

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fort Wayne (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chattanooga Red Wolves (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fort Wayne face Chattanooga Red Wolves in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fort Wayne a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Chattanooga Red Wolves 22%, so Fort Wayne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fort Wayne and 1.0 for Chattanooga Red Wolves (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fort Wayne are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.25 for Chattanooga Red Wolves.

Fort Wayne vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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