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Greenville Triumph vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Greenville Triumph

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

One Knoxville

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.0%0-26.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.1%1-111.9%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 56.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.6% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greenville Triumph1.3

One Knoxville1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 1.56

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Greenville Triumph (H) 39.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

One Knoxville (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Greenville Triumph face One Knoxville in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greenville Triumph a 40% chance, the draw 25% and One Knoxville 36%, so Greenville Triumph are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Greenville Triumph and 1.5 for One Knoxville (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greenville Triumph are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.89 for One Knoxville.

Greenville Triumph vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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