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Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:00

Chicago Fire

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Portland Timbers

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.6%1-17.5%1-24.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-17.8%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-18.7%4+-25.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 65.8% 1.52 -15.5%

Draw 21.2% 20.4% 4.90 +2.3%

Away win 23.1% 20.8% 4.80 +6.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 76.9% 1.30 -12.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 55.6% 1.80 -22.6%

BTTS 61.6% 72.5% 1.38 -15.0%

Home O1.5 63.4% 75.2% 1.33 -15.7%

Away O1.5 34.7% 42.0% 2.38 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Fire2.5

Portland Timbers1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 2.00

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Fire (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -15.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +2.3%

Portland Timbers (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Fire face Portland Timbers in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Fire a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Portland Timbers 23%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Chicago Fire and 1.2 for Portland Timbers (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Fire are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Portland Timbers.

Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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