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Los Angeles FC vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles FC logo
Los Angeles FC
PPG 2.20 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
San Diego logo
San Diego
PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.8%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.6%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.3%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-17.0%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 64.3% 61.7% 1.62 +4.2%
Draw 20.9% 22.7% 4.40 -4.8%
Away win 14.8% 22.5% 4.45 -20.5%
Over 2.5 59.5% 70.4% 1.42 -15.5%
Over 3.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%
BTTS 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%
Home O1.5 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%
Away O1.5 23.2% 39.2% 2.55 -24.5%

League track record

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%
O2.5 57%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -36.4%
Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%
#2 1–1 8.6%
#3 2–1 9.7%
#4 1–0 9.8%
#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC2.3
San Diego0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.20

SAN DIEGO · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC (H) 64.3%
ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +4.2%
Draw 20.9%
ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.8%
San Diego (A) 14.8%
ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC face San Diego in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 64% chance, the draw 21% and San Diego 15%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Los Angeles FC and 0.9 for San Diego (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.75 for San Diego.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

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