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Los Angeles FC vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:30
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 49 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 64% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%
Form & verdict
LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.20
SAN DIEGO · PPG 0.75
xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Los Angeles FC face San Diego in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 64% chance, the draw 21% and San Diego 15%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Los Angeles FC and 0.9 for San Diego (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.75 for San Diego.