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San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

St. Louis City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.8%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-19.7%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.6%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 49.5% 2.02 +7.9%

Draw 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Away win 23.9% 31.3% 3.20 -14.1%

Over 2.5 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Over 3.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

BTTS 53.1% 69.0% 1.45 -23.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Away O1.5 21.1% 45.5% 2.20 -32.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Jose Earthquakes2.0

St. Louis City0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 1.56

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Jose Earthquakes (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

St. Louis City (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Jose Earthquakes face St. Louis City in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 53% chance, the draw 23% and St. Louis City 24%, so San Jose Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.8 for St. Louis City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for St. Louis City.

San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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