Today / USA - MLS / New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 49 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 64% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.50
PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 0.44
xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York City FC face Philadelphia Union in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City FC a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Philadelphia Union 20%, so New York City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for New York City FC and 1.1 for Philadelphia Union (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City FC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.44 for Philadelphia Union. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.5%.