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Black Leopards vs The Bees Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 13:00

Black Leopards

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

The Bees

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.5%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Draw 25.3% 34.7% 2.88 -27.1%

Away win 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 43.9% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 45.6% 47.6% 2.10 -4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.6%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Black Leopards1.6

The Bees0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACK LEOPARDS · PPG 1.17

THE BEES · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

Black Leopards (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -27.1%

The Bees (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Black Leopards face The Bees in South-Africa - 1st Division on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Black Leopards a 55% chance, the draw 25% and The Bees 20%, so Black Leopards are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Black Leopards and 0.9 for The Bees (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Black Leopards are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.42 for The Bees. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Black Leopards vs The Bees Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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