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Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Olimpia

PPG 1.52 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 59.5% 1.68 -16.5%

Draw 27.0% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 23.4% 20.6% 4.85 +8.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

BTTS 51.3% 52.4% 1.91 -2.0%

Home O1.5 45.9% 52.6% 1.90 -12.8%

Away O1.5 27.3% 25.0% 4.00 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.3%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia1.6

Sportivo Ameliano1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA · PPG 1.52

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -16.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Sportivo Ameliano (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia face Sportivo Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Sportivo Ameliano 23%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Olimpia and 1.0 for Sportivo Ameliano (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.10 for Sportivo Ameliano. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.4%.

Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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