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2 de Mayo vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

2 de Mayo

PPG 2.15 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Olimpia

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.4%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-111.9%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 27.0% 3.70 +84.3%

Draw 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

Away win 23.1% 52.6% 1.90 -33.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +5.7%

BTTS 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Home O1.5 47.5% 29.0% 3.45 +63.9%

Away O1.5 29.1% 47.6% 2.10 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.0%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

2 de Mayo1.6

Olimpia1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

2 DE MAYO · PPG 2.15

OLIMPIA · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

2 de Mayo (H) 49.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +84.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.5%

Olimpia (A) 23.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

2 de Mayo face Olimpia in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 2 de Mayo a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Olimpia 23%, so 2 de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for 2 de Mayo and 1.0 for Olimpia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 2 de Mayo are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.79 for Olimpia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +96.3%. This match finished 1-0.

2 de Mayo vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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