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Sportivo Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Sportivo Luqueno

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Libertad Asuncion

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-19.2%0-28.0%0-34.7%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.8%2-16.6%2-25.8%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 46.2% 50.8% 1.97 -9.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 48.8% 2.05 +10.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 27.4% 3.65 +16.1%

BTTS 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Home O1.5 31.7% 30.3% 3.30 +4.6%

Away O1.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.5%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Luqueno1.2

Libertad Asuncion1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO LUQUENO · PPG 1.08

LIBERTAD ASUNCION · PPG 1.48

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Luqueno (H) 28.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Libertad Asuncion (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Luqueno face Libertad Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Luqueno a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Libertad Asuncion 46%, so Libertad Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.7 for Libertad Asuncion (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Luqueno are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.48 for Libertad Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Sportivo Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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