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Deportivo Recoleta vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 21:30

Deportivo Recoleta

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

2 de Mayo

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.7%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.2%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 43.5% 2.30 -7.3%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

Over 3.5 30.0% 25.6% 3.90 +17.0%

BTTS 54.2% 55.6% 1.80 -2.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 41.7% 2.40 +8.2%

Away O1.5 39.9% 33.9% 2.95 +17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.2%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Recoleta1.4

2 de Mayo1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA · PPG 1.58

2 DE MAYO · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Recoleta (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -7.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

2 de Mayo (A) 32.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Recoleta face 2 de Mayo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Recoleta a 40% chance, the draw 27% and 2 de Mayo 33%, so Deportivo Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.3 for 2 de Mayo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Recoleta are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.34 for 2 de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +17.7%.

Deportivo Recoleta vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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