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Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 21:30

Deportivo Recoleta

PPG 1.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nacional Asuncion

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.1%0-28.5%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.0%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.7%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 27.0% 3.70 +12.8%

Draw 30.9% 31.7% 3.15 -2.7%

Away win 38.6% 50.3% 1.99 -23.2%

Over 2.5 45.7% 46.5% 2.15 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 29.0% 3.45 +12.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.2%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Recoleta1.0

Nacional Asuncion1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA · PPG 1.31

NACIONAL ASUNCION · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Recoleta (H) 30.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +12.8%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -2.7%

Nacional Asuncion (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Recoleta face Nacional Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Recoleta a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Nacional Asuncion 39%, so Nacional Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.4 for Nacional Asuncion (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Recoleta are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.22 for Nacional Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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