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Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 1.03 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.1%0-27.8%0-33.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.0%1-112.6%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.1%2-17.1%2-25.0%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 28.2% 3.55 +20.0%

Draw 29.1% 31.7% 3.15 -5.0%

Away win 37.0% 49.0% 2.04 -24.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.0% 4.00 +9.1%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 29.0% 3.45 +10.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Ameliano1.1

Cerro Porteno1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 1.03

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Ameliano (H) 33.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +20.0%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.0%

Cerro Porteno (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Ameliano face Cerro Porteno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Ameliano a 34% chance, the draw 29% and Cerro Porteno 37%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.4 for Cerro Porteno (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Ameliano are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.46 for Cerro Porteno. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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