Today / Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura / Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 21:30

Libertad Asuncion

PPG 1.59 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Trinidense

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.9%0-27.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 44.4% 2.25 -23.1%

Draw 25.9% 32.8% 3.05 -12.6%

Away win 39.9% 31.7% 3.15 +25.7%

Over 2.5 53.3% 44.4% 2.25 +19.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 23.8% 4.20 +32.3%

BTTS 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Home O1.5 33.1% 40.8% 2.45 -18.9%

Away O1.5 42.6% 31.3% 3.20 +36.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad Asuncion1.2

Sportivo Trinidense1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD ASUNCION · PPG 1.59

SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE · PPG 2.05

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Libertad Asuncion (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.1%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -12.6%

Sportivo Trinidense (A) 39.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad Asuncion face Sportivo Trinidense in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad Asuncion a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Sportivo Trinidense 40%, so Sportivo Trinidense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Libertad Asuncion and 1.5 for Sportivo Trinidense (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad Asuncion are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 2.05 for Sportivo Trinidense. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +36.3%.

Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura Predictions