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Sportivo Ameliano vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 1.04 · HOME

UPCOMING

2 de Mayo

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-113.1%0-28.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.2%2-16.6%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 50.0% 2.00 -35.2%

Draw 32.1% 32.8% 3.05 -2.1%

Away win 35.4% 26.3% 3.80 +34.5%

Over 2.5 44.0% 41.7% 2.40 +5.6%

Over 3.5 24.6% 22.2% 4.50 +6.4%

BTTS 48.7% 50.0% 2.00 -2.6%

Home O1.5 32.6% 42.0% 2.38 -22.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 25.6% 3.90 +42.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Ameliano1.0

2 de Mayo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 1.04

2 DE MAYO · PPG 1.41

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Ameliano (H) 32.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -35.2%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -2.1%

2 de Mayo (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Ameliano face 2 de Mayo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Ameliano a 32% chance, the draw 32% and 2 de Mayo 35%, so 2 de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.3 for 2 de Mayo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Ameliano are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.41 for 2 de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +42.4%.

Sportivo Ameliano vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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