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Sportivo Trinidense vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

Sportivo Trinidense

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nacional Asuncion

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.3%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.3%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 36.5% 2.74 +33.4%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 24.1% 39.1% 2.56 -23.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 43.5% 2.30 +14.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

BTTS 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Home O1.5 45.1% 34.5% 2.90 +30.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 35.7% 2.80 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Trinidense1.5

Nacional Asuncion0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE · PPG 1.83

NACIONAL ASUNCION · PPG 1.07

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Trinidense (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +33.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Nacional Asuncion (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Trinidense face Nacional Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Trinidense a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Nacional Asuncion 24%, so Sportivo Trinidense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sportivo Trinidense and 0.9 for Nacional Asuncion (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Trinidense are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.07 for Nacional Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.8%.

Sportivo Trinidense vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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