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Club Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 21:30

Club Guarani

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Libertad Asuncion

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.1%0-26.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.6%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-17.7%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 33.8% 2.96 +6.6%

Draw 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Away win 33.7% 43.1% 2.32 -21.8%

Over 2.5 45.7% 46.5% 2.15 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.3% 3.95 +8.3%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 40.8% 2.45 -10.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Guarani1.2

Libertad Asuncion1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB GUARANI · PPG 1.50

LIBERTAD ASUNCION · PPG 1.85

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Guarani (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +6.6%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Libertad Asuncion (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Guarani face Libertad Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Guarani a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Libertad Asuncion 34%, so Club Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Club Guarani and 1.2 for Libertad Asuncion (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Guarani are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.85 for Libertad Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.2%.

Club Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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