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Nacional Asuncion vs Club Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

Nacional Asuncion

PPG 2.12 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Club Guarani

PPG 2.03 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.0%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.6%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-18.0%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 47.2% 2.12 -14.6%

Draw 32.1% 31.7% 3.15 +1.1%

Away win 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -5.1%

Over 2.5 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

Over 3.5 24.1% 22.2% 4.50 +5.1%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 33.7% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

Away O1.5 33.1% 29.0% 3.45 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0✓ 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Asuncion1.2

Club Guarani1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL ASUNCION · PPG 2.12

CLUB GUARANI · PPG 2.03

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Asuncion (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -14.6%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +1.1%

Club Guarani (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Asuncion face Club Guarani in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Asuncion a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Club Guarani 28%, so Nacional Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nacional Asuncion and 1.1 for Club Guarani (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Asuncion are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 2.03 for Club Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Nacional Asuncion vs Club Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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