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Cobresal vs Concepción Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Cobresal

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Concepción

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.1%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.9%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 39.7% 2.52 +25.2%

Draw 24.9% 29.9% 3.35 -10.0%

Away win 25.4% 39.7% 2.52 -21.6%

Over 2.5 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

Away O1.5 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobresal1.6

Concepción1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRESAL · PPG 1.50

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cobresal (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +25.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.0%

Concepción (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobresal face Concepción in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobresal a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Concepción 25%, so Cobresal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cobresal and 1.2 for Concepción (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobresal are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Concepción. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Cobresal vs Concepción Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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