Today / Chile - Primera División / Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena

Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:00

Universidad de Concepcion

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. La Serena

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.7%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.5%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 43.9% 2.28 -9.9%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 33.5% 35.5% 2.82 -5.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 37.9% 45.5% 2.20 -16.6%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Concepcion1.3

D. La Serena1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION · PPG 1.62

D. LA SERENA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Concepcion (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -9.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

D. La Serena (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Concepcion face D. La Serena in Chile - Primera División on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Concepcion a 40% chance, the draw 27% and D. La Serena 34%, so Universidad de Concepcion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.2 for D. La Serena (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Concepcion are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.89 for D. La Serena.

Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions