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Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:00

Everton de Vina

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Italiano

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.9%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-112.1%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.7%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 51.5% 1.94 -3.2%

Draw 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

Away win 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.8% 1.93 -3.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 21.2% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton de Vina1.5

A. Italiano0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON DE VINA · PPG 1.00

A. ITALIANO · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Everton de Vina (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -3.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.8%

A. Italiano (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton de Vina face A. Italiano in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton de Vina a 50% chance, the draw 26% and A. Italiano 24%, so Everton de Vina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Everton de Vina and 0.9 for A. Italiano (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton de Vina are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.62 for A. Italiano.

Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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