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Deportes Limache vs Universidad de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

Deportes Limache

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universidad de Chile

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.7%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.6%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 32.8% 3.05 +39.7%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 27.8% 48.5% 2.06 -25.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 60.6% 1.65 -16.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 38.5% 2.60 -22.0%

BTTS 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 41.7% 2.40 +8.2%

Away O1.5 31.3% 54.1% 1.85 -42.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.5%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Limache1.4

Universidad de Chile1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 2.14

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Limache (H) 45.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +39.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Universidad de Chile (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Limache face Universidad de Chile in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Limache a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Universidad de Chile 28%, so Deportes Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportes Limache and 1.0 for Universidad de Chile (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Limache are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.33 for Universidad de Chile. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.1%.

Deportes Limache vs Universidad de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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