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Nublense vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:30

Nublense

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union La Calera

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.5%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-110.3%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Draw 22.5% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Away win 22.1% 22.7% 4.40 -1.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 51.3% 1.95 +4.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 29.0% 3.45 +9.7%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 52.6% 1.90 +3.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nublense1.9

Union La Calera0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.44

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nublense (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -3.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

Union La Calera (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nublense face Union La Calera in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nublense a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Union La Calera 22%, so Nublense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nublense and 0.8 for Union La Calera (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nublense are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Union La Calera. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.7%.

Nublense vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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