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Colo Colo vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Colo Colo

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

O'Higgins

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-16.4%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-110.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 67.6% 1.48 +7.1%

Draw 17.6% 23.3% 4.30 -14.6%

Away win 10.0% 17.9% 5.60 -26.4%

Over 2.5 64.7% 61.7% 1.62 +4.8%

Over 3.5 42.6% 39.2% 2.55 +8.6%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Away O1.5 18.4% 28.2% 3.55 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 72% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo Colo2.7

O'Higgins0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO COLO · PPG 2.33

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.22

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Colo Colo (H) 72.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +7.1%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -14.6%

O'Higgins (A) 10.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo Colo face O'Higgins in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo Colo a 72% chance, the draw 18% and O'Higgins 10%, so Colo Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Colo Colo and 0.8 for O'Higgins (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo Colo are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.22 for O'Higgins. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Colo Colo vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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